Narre Warren South
VICNarre Warren South is a declining suburb in VIC with 30,909 residents.
- SAL code
- 21896
- SA2
- 212031458
- Population
- 30,909
Narre Warren South, VIC had 30,909 residents at the 2021 Census, with the broader statistical area showing a 1.6% decline over the last five years. The predominant age group is 5-14 years, and the median age sits at 34. Households are most often couples with children, and those with a mortgage repay a median of $1,937 a month. Around 81.6% of homes are owner-occupied, with the largest single tenure being owned with a mortgage at 57.4%. Most dwellings are separate houses, making up 93.0% of the suburb's housing stock. The suburb has 50 parks and reserves mapped within its boundary. Source: ABS Census 2021 and Estimated Resident Population, with amenity counts from state Open Data and OpenStreetMap.
Suburb analysis
Narre Warren South, VIC at a glance
Narre Warren South is an established outer south-east Melbourne suburb ~39 km from the CBD in the City of Casey. The bulk of the housing stock dates to the mid-1990s through 2000s estate build-out (Berwick Springs, Hillsmeade), giving it a settled family-owner-occupier feel rather than the raw growth-corridor look of newer Casey releases. The data tiles below cover the demographic baseline; this card adds the live market + lifestyle + council context.
For homebuyers
Narre Warren South suits buyers who want an established outer-suburb family setup rather than a newer Casey or Cardinia release. Most homes are 3- and 4-bedroom detached houses on standard estate lots, built through the late 1990s and 2000s — streetscapes are mature, not raw. Casey Central (Coles, Woolworths, Aldi, Target) and Amberly Park anchor day-to-day shopping, with Westfield Fountain Gate ~10 minutes north for the bigger run. Strathaird Reserve is the recreation centrepiece (a new $1.59m pavilion opened in 2025), and Strathaird Primary plus Narre Warren South P-12 College (~2,000 students) are the school standouts. There's no station inside the suburb — Narre Warren and Merinda Park stations on the Pakenham line are each ~3-4 km away, both ~50-55 min to Flinders Street. In short: an established family suburb with mature estates, decent shopping on the doorstep, and a longer drive-to-station commute than inner Casey.
For investors
Narre Warren South is a capital-growth-leaning market with modest yield. Median house sale $851,000 against $620/week rent gives a 3.80% gross yield; units sit at $760,000 / $575/week / 4.25% (Your Investment Property May 2026, CoreLogic 12 months to Jan 2026). 12-month house growth +4.42% (quarterly +1.92%); units +21.60% off a thin base of just 13 sales. Houses turn in 19 days, units 22. Deep house market — 423 sales in 12 months.
Strengths
- Deep, liquid house market — 423 house sales in 12 months (Your Investment Property May 2026) makes it easy to enter and exit.
- Short days-on-market (19 houses, 22 units) signal steady absorption rather than oversupply.
- Mature estates + established schools (Strathaird Primary, Narre Warren South P-12) underpin family owner-occupier demand.
- Casey LGA continues a $125.8m capital works program for 2025/26 with playground, pavilion and reserve spend flowing into the suburb (Casey Budget 2025/26).
Trade-offs
- Yield is modest (~3.80% houses) — not a cashflow play; thesis depends on growth.
- Unit market is thin — only 13 unit sales in 12 months (Your Investment Property May 2026), so the +21.6% unit growth figure is statistically noisy.
- No train station inside the suburb — commuters drive ~3-4 km to Narre Warren or Merinda Park; Pakenham-line trip is ~50-55 min to Flinders Street.
- Outer-southeast corridor still releasing greenfield supply (Clyde, Cranbourne East), which competes for the same buyer pool.
What's coming
City of Casey's 2025/26 budget runs a $125.8m capital works program. Suburb-specific spend includes the recently opened $1.59m Strathaird Reserve pavilion, a Lochard Terrace Reserve playground redesign (nature-play, all-abilities surfacing), and a flagged Grices Road Recreation Reserve pavilion upgrade (~$1.2m). The Narre Warren South (Part A) Development Plan continues to govern remaining infill.
Bottom line
For homebuyers: an established family suburb with mature estates and Casey Central on the doorstep. For investors: a steady capital-growth + liquidity play with modest yield, not a cashflow story.
Population
?30,909
Suburb · Census 2021
5-Year Growth
-1.6%
3yr: +2.0% · 10yr: -1.4%
SA2 · 5yr
Household Income
$2,158/wk
Suburb · Census 2021 median
Median Age
34
Suburb · Census 2021
Socio-Economic Index
?3/10
SA2 · more disadvantaged
Unemployment
?6.6%
SA2 · Q4 2025
Schools
5
5 primary, 2 secondary
Hospitals
No data for this suburb
Childcare services
?18
11 long day, 6 OSHC, 1 family
Parks & green space
?50
Parks, reserves
Transport stops
?110
GTFS stops
Dwelling approvals
No data for this suburb
Median House Sale Price
Source: Valuer-General Victoria (suburb-level quarterly medians).
→ Calculate stamp duty on this suburb's median price→ Estimate mortgage repayments
Safety & Crime
2025 Q4Reported incidents from VIC police. Offence rates may not reflect all crime.
Population over time — Narre Warren South - West (SA2)
ABS publishes annual estimates only at SA2; Narre Warren South suburb alone is ~30,909 (Census 2021).
Source: ABS ERP (latest release · 2025) · Census 2021. Numbers refreshed quarterly.
Growth at a Glance
Population grew from 8,362 to 17,083 over 24 years, averaging 3.0% per year.
Schools
5 in suburbSector
3 public · 2 private
Type
3 primary · 2 K-12
Total enrolment
5,023
Avg per school
1,005
Government school catchment
Catchment data is not yet available for VIC.
Source when available: Victorian Department of Education / Vicmap School Zones.
Profile
Census snapshot
Housing
Public housing 0.7%Almost entirely detached houses (93%), owner-occupied (81.6%), built for families (55% are 4 bed).
Dwelling mix
Tenure
VIC 29%
Number of bedrooms
Bushfire risk
Source: VIC DTP Designated Bushfire Prone Area
As of Apr 2026
Overlap is the percentage of the suburb's land area inside the mapped bushfire polygons. Always verify the exact property address with the relevant authority before making decisions.
Flood risk
Source: VIC DTP Vicmap Planning Overlay (flood codes)
As of Apr 2026
Overlap is the percentage of the suburb's land area inside the mapped flood polygons. Always verify the exact property address with the relevant authority before making decisions.
Planning zones
14 zones in suburb| Code | Zone | % covered | Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRZ1 | General Residential Zone Schedule 1Residential | 53.2% | 7.05 km² |
| LDRZ2 | Low Density Residential Zone Schedule 2Residential | 21.1% | 2.79 km² |
| UFZ | Urban Floodway ZoneWaterway | 6.7% | 0.89 km² |
| PPRZ | Public Park and Recreation ZoneRecreation | 4.8% | 0.63 km² |
| GRZ2 | General Residential Zone Schedule 2Residential | 4.0% | 0.53 km² |
| RGZ2 | Residential Growth Zone Schedule 2Residential | 1.9% | 0.25 km² |
| TRZ2 | TRZ2Special use | 1.8% | 0.24 km² |
| PUZ1 | Public Use Zone Schedule 1Special use | 1.7% | 0.23 km² |
| UGZ5 | UGZ5Other | 1.5% | 0.20 km² |
| PUZ2 | Public Use Zone Schedule 2Special use | 1.3% | 0.17 km² |
| C1Z | Commercial 1 ZoneBusiness | 1.0% | 0.14 km² |
| PUZ6 | Public Use Zone Schedule 6Special use | 0.4% | 0.05 km² |
| UGZ | UGZOther | 0.3% | 0.04 km² |
| UGZ10 | UGZ10Other | 0.1% | 0.02 km² |
Source: VIC DTP Vicmap Planning Zones (ZONE_VIC/2026-04-29/08783d2926383881) · As of Apr 2026. Zone boundaries are amended periodically; verify the exact property with the relevant council before relying on permitted use.