Carrum Downs
VICCarrum Downs is a growing suburb in VIC with 21,976 residents.
- SAL code
- 20508
- SA2
- 214011370
- Population
- 21,976
Carrum Downs, VIC had 21,976 residents at the 2021 Census, with the broader statistical area showing a 4.8% growth over the last five years. The predominant age group is 25-34 years, and the median age sits at 36. Households are most often couples with children, and those with a mortgage repay a median of $1,733 a month. Around 69.8% of homes are owner-occupied, with the largest single tenure being owned with a mortgage at 47.6%. Most dwellings are separate houses, making up 79.8% of the suburb's housing stock. The suburb has 66 parks and reserves mapped within its boundary. Source: ABS Census 2021 and Estimated Resident Population, with amenity counts from state Open Data and OpenStreetMap.
Suburb analysis
Carrum Downs, VIC at a glance
Carrum Downs is an established outer-south-east Melbourne suburb ~38 km from the CBD in the City of Frankston. Mostly 1990s-2000s detached houses on standard lots, with newer pockets to the north and an industrial estate along Frankston-Dandenong Road. The data tiles below cover the demographic baseline; this card adds the live market, lifestyle and council pipeline.
For homebuyers
Carrum Downs reads as a settled, family-oriented outer suburb with the feel of a self-contained town. Most homes are 3- and 4-bedroom houses from the 1990s-2000s, plenty of cul-de-sacs, and three shopping precincts cover everything day-to-day: the Carrum Downs Regional Shopping Centre (Kmart, Woolworths), an IGA-anchored local village, and a Coles centre. There's no train station — the nearest are Seaford and Carrum, both ~10 minutes by car — and bus links run to Frankston. Schools include Rowellyn Park Primary, Carrum Downs Secondary College, Flinders Christian College and St Joachim's; Monash Peninsula campus is nearby. Beach is ~10 minutes; the Monash Freeway and Peninsula Link put the CBD ~45 minutes away off-peak. In short: a practical, family-paced suburb with strong retail amenity but a car-dependent commute pattern.
For investors
Carrum Downs is a moderate-yield, steady-growth market with a fast clearance pace. Median house $790,000 with $590/week rent giving ~3.93% gross yield; units $622,500 at $530/week for ~4.96% (htag.com.au, 2026). 12-month house growth +10.49% (quarterly +4.91%); units +7.33% YoY. 330 house + 158 unit sales in 12 months — a deep market — and houses average 7-13 days on market depending on source.
Strengths
- Solid recent capital growth (~+10.5% YoY houses; +7.3% units) per htag.com.au 2026.
- Deep transaction market (~488 sales/yr across houses + units) — easy entry and exit.
- Fast clearance — 7-13 days on market signals consistent buyer demand.
- Tight vacancy (~0.7-2.0% across sources) supports leasing velocity for landlords.
Trade-offs
- House yields moderate at ~3.9% — not a high-cashflow suburb at current prices.
- No train station — bus-to-Frankston is the only public transport spine; commuters drive.
- Frankston LGA growth pipeline (~20,000 more residents by 2036 per Council) implies sustained dwelling supply that could cap yield expansion.
What's coming
Frankston City Council's 2025/26 Capital Works program is $72.9M, with ~$8M for road and footpath upgrades including the Tower Hill Road Shared User Path and McCormicks Road works in Carrum Downs. The broader Frankston Metropolitan Activity Centre Structure Plan and the Federal $50M Nepean Highway investment underpin medium-term connectivity gains across the LGA.
Bottom line
For homebuyers: a steady family suburb with strong retail amenity, accepting the car-first commute. For investors: a moderate-yield, deep, fast-moving market with reliable growth rather than headline yield.
Population
?21,976
Suburb · Census 2021
5-Year Growth
+4.8%
3yr: +4.8% · 10yr: +10.2%
SA2 · 5yr
Household Income
$1,658/wk
Suburb · Census 2021 median
Median Age
36
Suburb · Census 2021
Socio-Economic Index
?4/10
SA2 · middle-range
Unemployment
?4.8%
SA2 · Q4 2025
Schools
4
3 primary, 1 secondary
Hospitals
No data for this suburb
Childcare services
?21
12 long day, 8 OSHC
Parks & green space
?66
Parks, reserves
Transport stops
?65
GTFS stops
Dwelling approvals
No data for this suburb
Median Weekly Rent
Based on rental bond lodgements recorded by the state government.
Median House Sale Price
Source: Valuer-General Victoria (suburb-level quarterly medians).
→ Calculate stamp duty on this suburb's median price→ Estimate mortgage repayments→ Calculate rental yield (price + median rent)
Safety & Crime
2025 Q4Reported incidents from VIC police. Offence rates may not reflect all crime.
Population over time — Carrum Downs (SA2)
ABS publishes annual estimates only at SA2; Carrum Downs suburb alone is ~21,976 (Census 2021).
Source: ABS ERP (latest release · 2025) · Census 2021. Numbers refreshed quarterly.
Growth at a Glance
Population grew from 15,419 to 23,464 over 24 years, averaging 1.8% per year.
Schools
4 in suburbSector
3 public · 1 private
Type
3 primary · 1 secondary
Total enrolment
2,558
Avg per school
640
Government school catchment
Catchment data is not yet available for VIC.
Source when available: Victorian Department of Education / Vicmap School Zones.
Profile
Census snapshot
Housing
Public housing 1.3%Almost entirely detached houses (79.8%), mixed tenure (69.8% own or mortgage), built for families (60% are 3 bed).
Dwelling mix
Tenure
VIC 29%
Number of bedrooms
Bushfire risk
Source: VIC DTP Designated Bushfire Prone Area
As of Apr 2026
Overlap is the percentage of the suburb's land area inside the mapped bushfire polygons. Always verify the exact property address with the relevant authority before making decisions.
Flood risk
Source: VIC DTP Vicmap Planning Overlay (flood codes)
As of Apr 2026
Overlap is the percentage of the suburb's land area inside the mapped flood polygons. Always verify the exact property address with the relevant authority before making decisions.
Planning zones
13 zones in suburb| Code | Zone | % covered | Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1Z | Residential 1 ZoneResidential | 32.6% | 6.63 km² |
| PUZ1 | Public Use Zone Schedule 1Special use | 22.9% | 4.64 km² |
| IN1Z | Industrial 1 ZoneIndustrial | 14.4% | 2.93 km² |
| GWZ | Green Wedge ZoneRural | 13.8% | 2.80 km² |
| TRZ2 | TRZ2Special use | 6.6% | 1.34 km² |
| PCRZ | Public Conservation and Resource ZoneEnvironmental | 4.9% | 1.00 km² |
| PPRZ | Public Park and Recreation ZoneRecreation | 1.9% | 0.38 km² |
| PUZ2 | Public Use Zone Schedule 2Special use | 1.0% | 0.21 km² |
| B1Z | Business 1 ZoneBusiness | 0.6% | 0.13 km² |
| B2Z | Business 2 ZoneBusiness | 0.4% | 0.09 km² |
| B4Z | Business 4 ZoneBusiness | 0.3% | 0.07 km² |
| TRZ3 | TRZ3Special use | 0.3% | 0.05 km² |
| PUZ6 | Public Use Zone Schedule 6Special use | 0.2% | 0.04 km² |
Source: VIC DTP Vicmap Planning Zones (ZONE_VIC/2026-04-29/08783d2926383881) · As of Apr 2026. Zone boundaries are amended periodically; verify the exact property with the relevant council before relying on permitted use.